NHMP Publications

In addition to the publications released directly as part of the National Hydrological Monitoring Programme, articles are regularly published in the scientific literature. These are published to disseminate the results of research conducted by NHMP staff and the majority reflect the Programme’s key obligations to document the severity of major flood and drought events and to detect and interpret long-term hydrological trends in the UK. Many are authored in collaboration with other researchers from UKCEH, and sometimes external organisations, and some are produced as the output of specific research projects funded by external organisations. The following bibliography provides a list of recent scientific publications produced by NHMP staff, grouped into several key themes.

Floods & Droughts

Barker, L; Hannahford, J; Muchan, K; Turner, S; Parry S. 2016 The winter 2015/2016 floods in the UK: a hydrological appraisal. Weather, 71(12), 324-332.  

Muchan, Katie; Lewis, Melinda; Hannaford, Jamie; Parry, Simon. 2015 The winter storms of 2013/2014 in the UK: hydrological responses and impacts. Weather, 70 (2). 55-61.

Folland, C.K.; Hannaford, J.; Bloomfield, J.P.; Kendon, M.; Svensson, C.; Marchant, B.P.; Prior, J.; Wallace, E.. 2014 Multi-annual droughts in the English Lowlands: a review of their characteristics and climate drivers in the winter half year. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11 (11). 12933-12985. 

Kay, A.L.; Crooks, S.M.; Davies, H.N.; Prudhomme, C.; Reynard, N.S.. 2014 Probabilistic impacts of climate change on flood frequency using response surfaces I: England and Wales. Regional Environmental Change, 14 (3). 1215-1227. 

Slingo, Julia; Belcher, Stephen; Scaife, Adam; McCarthy, Mark; Saulter, Andy; McBeath, Kirsty; Jenkins, Alan; Huntingford, Chris; Marsh, Terry; Hannaford, Jamie; Parry, Simon. 2014 The recent storms and floods in the UK. Exeter, UK Met Office, 27pp. 

Parry, Simon; Marsh, Terry; Kendon, Mike. 2013 2012: from drought to floods in England and Wales. Weather, 68 (10). 268-274. 

Miller, J.D.; Kjeldsen, T.R.; Hannaford, J.; Morris, D.G.. 2013 A hydrological assessment of the November 2009 floods in Cumbria, UK. Hydrology Research, 44 (1). 180-197.

Marsh, Terry; Parry, Simon. 2012 An overview of the 2010-12 drought and its dramatic termination. Wallingford, UK, NERC/Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, 4pp.

Marsh, Terry; Harvey, Catherine L.. 2012 The Thames flood series: a lack of trend in flood magnitude and a decline in maximum levels. Hydrology Research, 43 (3). 203-214. 

Parry, Simon; Hannaford, Jamie; Lloyd-Hughes, Ben; Prudhomme, Christel. 2012 Multi-year droughts in Europe: analysis of development and causes. Hydrology Research, 43 (5). 689-706. 

Hannaford, J., Lloyd-Hughes, B., Keef, C., Parry, S., Prudhomme, C. 2011. Examining the large-scale spatial coherence of European drought using regional indicators of precipitation and streamflow deficit. Hydrological Processes, DOI: 10.1002/hyp.7725.

Parry, S., Prudhomme, C., Hannaford, J., Lloyd-Hughes, B. 2010. High and low flow catalogues for Europe: regional indicators as tools to characterise spatially-coherent hydrological extremes. In: Servat, Eric; Demuth, Siegfried; Dezetter, Alain; Daniell, Trevor, (eds.) Global Change: Facing Risks and Threats to Water Resources. Wallingford, UK, IAHS Press, 653-660. (IAHS Publication, 340). 

Parry, S., Prudhomme, C., Hannaford, J., Lloyd-Hughes, B. 2010. Examining the spatio-temporal evolution and characteristics of large-scale European droughts. In: Kirby, Celia, (ed.) Role of Hydrology in Managing Consequences of a Changing Global Environment. British Hydrological Society Third International Symposium. Newcastle, British Hydrological Society, 135-142. 

Marsh T.J. 2007. The 2004-06 drought in southern Britain. Weather, 62 (7), 191 – 196. 

Marsh, T.J., Cole, G.A. & Wilby, R.L. 2007. Major droughts in England and Wales 1800-2006. Weather, 62, 87-93. 

Cole, G.A. & Marsh, T.J. 2006. An historical analysis of drought in England and Wales.  In: Climate Variability and Change – Hydrological Impacts, IAHS Publication 308, 483 – 489. 

Marsh, T.J., Greenfield, B.J. & Hannaford, J.A. 2005. The River Thames flood of November 1894 – a reappraisal of the maximum flow. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers – Water Management, 158, 103 – 110.

Marsh, T.J. 2004. The January 2003 flood on the Thames. Weather, 59 (3), 59 – 62.

Marsh, T.J. 2004. The UK drought of 2003: A hydrological review. Weather, 59 (8), 224 – 230.

Marsh, T.J. & Dale, M. 2002. The UK floods of 2000-2001: A hydrometeorological appraisal. Water and Environment Journal, 16 (3), 180 – 188.

Sefton, C., Muchan, K., Parry, S., Matthews, B., Barker, L., Turner, S. and Hannaford, J. 2021. The 2019/2020 floods in the UK: a hydrological appraisal. Weather. 

Turner, S., Barker, L.J., Hannaford, J., Muchan, K., Parry, S. and Sefton, C. 2021, The 2018/2019 drought in the UK: a hydrological appraisal. Weather. 

Trends and Climate Change

Orr, Harriet G.; Simpson, Gavin L.; des Clers, Sophie; Watts, Glenn; Hughes, Mike; Hannaford, Jamie; Dunbar, Michael J.; Laize, Cedric L.R.; Wilby, Rob L.; Battarbee, Richard W.; Evans, Rob. 2014 Detecting changing river temperatures in England and Wales. Hydrological Processes

Chiverton, A.; Hannaford, J.; Holman, I.; Corstanje, R.; Prudhomme, C.; Hess, T.M.; Bloomfield, J.P.. 2014 Using variograms to detect and attribute hydrological change. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11 (10). 11763-11795. 

Chiverton, Andrew; Hannaford, Jamie; Holman, Ian; Corstanje, Ron; Prudhomme, Christel; Bloomfield, John; Hess, Tim M.. 2014 Which catchment characteristics control the temporal dependence structure of daily river flows? Hydrological Processes.

Hannaford, Jamie. 2013 Observed long-term changes in UK river flow patterns: a review. Wallingford, UK, National River Flow Archive, 37pp. (A Climate Change Report Card for Water. Working Technical Paper 2) 

Whitfield, Paul H.; Burn, Donald H.; Hannaford, Jamie; Higgins, Hélène; Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Marsh, Terry; Looser, Ulrich. 2012 Reference hydrologic networks I: the status and potential future directions of national reference hydrologic networks for detecting trends. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (8). 1562-1579. 

Hannaford, J.; Buys, G.. 2012 Trends in seasonal river flow regimes in the UK. Journal of Hydrology, 475. 158-174. 

Stahl, K.; Hisdal, H.; Hannaford, J.; Tallaksen, L.M.; van Lanen, H.A.J.; Sauquet, E.; Demuth, S.; Fendekova, M.; Jódar, J.. 2010 Streamflow trends in Europe: evidence from a dataset of near-natural catchments. Hydrology and Earth Systems Science, 14, 2367-2382. 

Hannaford, J; Harvey, C. L.. 2010 UK seasonal river flow variability in near-natural catchments, regional outflows and long hydrometric records. In: Kirby, Celia, (ed.) Role of Hydrology in Managing Consequences of a Changing Global Environment. British Hydrological Society Third International Symposium. Newcastle, British Hydrological Society, 96-102. 

Johnson, A.C., Acreman, M.C., Dunbar, M.J., Feist, S.W., Giacomello, A.M., Gozlan, R.E., Hinsley, S.A., Ibbotson, A.T., Jarvie, H.P., Jones, J., Longshaw, M., Maberly, S.C., Marsh, T.J., Neal, C., Newman, J.R., Nunn, M.A., Pickup, R.W., Reynard, N.S., Sullivan, C.A., Sumpter, J.P. & Williams, R.J. 2009. The British river of the future: how climate change and human activity might affect two contrasting river ecosystems in England. Science of the Total Environment, 407 (17), 4787 – 4798. 

Hannaford, J. & Marsh, T.J. 2008. High flow and flood trends in a network of undisturbed catchments in the UK. International Journal of Climatology, 28 (10), 1325 – 1338. 

Stahl, K., Hisdal, H., Tallaksen, L.M., van Lanen, H.A.J., Hannaford, J. & Sauquet, E. 2008. Trends in low flows and streamflow drought across Europe. UNESCO Report, Paris, 39pp.

Buonomo, E., Jones, R., Huntingford, C. & Hannaford, J. 2007. On the robustness of changes in extreme precipitation over Europe from two high resolution climate change scenarios. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 133, 65 – 81. 

Hannaford, J. & Marsh, T.J. 2006. An assessment of trends in UK runoff and low flows using a network of undisturbed catchments. International Journal of Climatology, 26, 1237 – 1253. 

Hannaford, J. & Marsh, T.J. 2006. High and low flow trends in a national network of undisturbed indicator catchments in the UK. In: Climate Variability and Change – Hydrological Impacts, IAHS Publication 308, 496 – 501. 

Hannaford, J., Mastrantonas, N., Vesuviano, G., Turner, S. 2021. An updated national-scale assessment of trends in UK peak river flow data: how robust are observed increases in flooding?. Hydrology Research 2021; nh2021156. 

Svensson, C., Hannaford, J., Kundzewicz, Z.W. & Marsh, T.J. 2006. Trends in river floods: why is there no clear signal in observations? In: Frontiers in Flood Research, Proceedings of the IAHS/UNESCO Kovacs Colloquium. IAHS Publication 305, 1 – 18. 

Hannaford, J.A., Laizé, C.R.L. & Marsh, T.J. 2005. An assessment of trends in undisturbed catchments in the Celtic regions of North West Europe. In: Water in Celtic Countries: Quantity, Quality and Climate Variability.  Proceedings of the Fourth Inter-Celtic Colloquim on Hydrology and Management of Water Resources. IAHS Publication 310, 78 – 85.